Exclusive-Intelligence shared with White House shows Ukrainians not ‘encircled’ in Kursk
Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk have indeed lost ground in recent days, but contrary to claims by US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, they are not encircled by Russian forces. This assessment comes from three US and European officials familiar with their governments’ intelligence assessments, which have been shared with the White House over the past week.
Despite this, Trump has continued to assert that Ukrainian troops are surrounded in western Russia’s Kursk region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has denied these claims, stating that Putin is lying about the reality on the ground. Zelenskiy acknowledges that his military is in a difficult position in Kursk and expects continued attacks from Russia as it attempts to push Ukrainian forces out of the region.
The situation in Kursk is complex, with Ukrainian soldiers having lost almost all of the territory they gained since August. They once held close to 500 square miles of land but now only hold between 20 and 30 square miles, according to open source reports.
Trump’s conversation with Putin on Tuesday shed some light on the situation. Putin promised to halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days, but this fell short of the full 30-day ceasefire Trump has called for. Zelenskiy has stated that Ukraine would be prepared to accept a 30-day ceasefire.
Experts suggest that Putin’s narrative is part of a broader misinformation campaign aimed at gaining leverage in ceasefire negotiations. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, notes that Putin is likely trying to make the point that Russia is winning the war and that resistance is useless. This resonates with Trump, who has been pushing for a swift resolution to the conflict.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitor, has observed no geolocated evidence to indicate that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere along the frontline in Ukraine. This contradicts Putin’s March 13 statement, which claimed that Ukrainian forces were surrounded.
As the situation in Kursk continues to unfold, it’s clear that the conflict is complex and multifaceted. With both sides maneuvering to gain a better position for negotiations, it remains to be seen how the situation will evolve.
